Beef Market Brief
Week ending September 25, 2026
This week: Boxed beef eases 1.5% in a month, still 16% above normal, amid cattle prices 7% below last year.
- Lock in before the holiday run-up. Chuck flap usually climbs about 21% by late November. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
- Book early for grilling season. Tri-tip usually climbs about 44% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
- Relief ahead. Eye of round usually eases about 21% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Bottom line. Middle meats are expensive and getting more so — strips are running 39% above where they normally sit this time of year, ribeyes 30% above normal, and neither is showing signs of backing off. If you use flank steak, it's the one cut actually below its normal price right now, so lean on it while that window lasts. For everything else — strips, ribeyes, tenders, brisket — lock in what you can before the holiday run-up makes this look cheap.
Where to lean in this week
| Cut | Price/cwt | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Flank Steak (193) ↓ | $654.79 | 9% below the 3-yr norm · Relief · ~23% by late Jan |
Where to be careful
| Cut | Price/cwt | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Loin, Strip Loin, Boneless, 0x1 (180) → | $990.11 | 39% above the 3-yr norm · Lock in · ~12% by mid-Nov |
| Loin, Bottom Sirloin Butt, Tri-Tip (185C) ↑ | $512.62 | 38% above the 3-yr norm · Book · ~44% by mid-Jun |
| Rib, Ribeye Roll, Lip-On (112A) ↑ | $1,573.07 | 30% above the 3-yr norm · Lock in · ~13% by early Dec |
| Rib, Ribeye Roll, Lip-On, Bone-In (109E) ↑ | $1,349.95 | 27% above the 3-yr norm · Lock in · ~18% by mid-Dec |
| Chuck Roll, 1x1, Neck Off (116A) ↑ | $581.59 | 23% above the 3-yr norm · Relief · ~12% by late Nov |
| Brisket, Flat Cut, Boneless (120A) ↓ | $786.53 | 23% above the 3-yr norm — consider substitutes or hold |
| Brisket, Deckle-Off, Boneless (120) ↓ | $440.24 | 20% above the 3-yr norm — consider substitutes or hold |
| Chuck, Short Ribs (130) ↑ | $588.55 | 17% above the 3-yr norm and still rising — lock needs or substitute |
| Loin, Bottom Sirloin Butt, Tri-Tip, Peeled (185D) ↓ | $696.44 | 17% above the 3-yr norm — consider substitutes or hold |
| Short Plate, Short Ribs, Trimmed (123A) → | $740.22 | 16% above the 3-yr norm — consider substitutes or hold |
| Loin, Top Sirloin Butt, Boneless (184) → | $510.62 | 12% above the 3-yr norm — consider substitutes or hold |
| Loin, Tenderloin, Side Muscle On, Defatted, Heavy (189A) ↓ | $1,669.78 | 9% above the 3-yr norm · Lock in · ~15% by late Nov |
| Loin, Bottom Sirloin Butt, Flap (185A) ↓ | $748.96 | 7% above the 3-yr norm — consider substitutes or hold |
Other cuts: 1 cut in line with the seasonal norm.
What's driving it
The core problem is simple: there aren't enough cattle. The U.S. herd has been shrinking for years — drought forced ranchers to sell off cows they'd normally keep for breeding, and rebuilding that herd takes time the market doesn't have yet. Fewer cattle means tighter beef supplies, and when restaurant traffic in the premium dining segment stays strong on top of that, middle meat prices go one direction. The Boxed Beef Price has eased about 1.5% over the past month, which sounds like relief but still leaves it 16% above where it normally runs in late September — and seasonally, the next few months tend to firm prices further as holiday demand builds. The supply math doesn't improve meaningfully until 2027 at the earliest, so operators still waiting for prices to snap back to where they were are likely to be waiting a long time.
Prepared by Andrew Dorsey, Founder & Principal Analyst · hello@seymourmeat.com
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, data through September 25, 2026. Tables and commentary: Seymour Meat analysis. Guidance, not a quote.
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, boxed beef and cut prices, week of Sep 25, 2026 · Seymour Meat analysis: the tables and the commentary