Brisket · Choice
Brisket, Deckle-Off, Boneless (120)
$3.83/lb +4% vs normal
Lock in · ~10% by early Jan
Boxed beef slips 2.9% in a month, still 10% above normal, amid cattle prices 5% below last year.
Boxed Beef Price $3.69/lb (Choice) · normal for late October: $3.34/lb.
- Next 4 wks
- usually eases ~2%
- Next 13 wks
- usually near today's level by Jan 29
Why
- Fewer cattle harvested (−2.3% vs last yr)→ less beef in the box → supports pricesData as of Oct 10
- Cattle cost less than a year ago (−4.7% vs last yr)→ less cost pressure on boxesData as of Oct 26
- This time of year→ the Boxed Beef Price usually eases ~2% over 4 weeks → Sirloin flap usually moves most, −8%
Lock in before the winter run-up. Outside skirt usually climbs about 15% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Book early for grilling season. Strip usually climbs about 36% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Relief ahead. Eye of round usually eases about 24% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
All 31 seasonal notes
Lock in
Lock in before the winter run-up. Outside skirt usually climbs about 15% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Sirloin flap usually climbs about 11% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Chuck short ribs usually climbs about 10% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Tri-tip usually climbs about 15% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Peeled tri-tip usually climbs about 13% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the holiday run-up. Bone-in ribeye usually climbs about 11% by mid-December. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Brisket usually climbs about 10% by early January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Inside skirt usually climbs about 10% by late January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Lock in before the winter run-up. Brisket flat usually climbs about 8% by early January. Lock in pricing with your supplier now.
Book
Book early for grilling season. Strip usually climbs about 36% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Book early for grilling season. Short loin usually climbs about 29% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Book early for grilling season. Peeled outside skirt usually climbs about 23% by late May. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Book early for grilling season. Top sirloin usually climbs about 35% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Book early for grilling season. Center-cut top sirloin usually climbs about 25% by mid-June. Plan grilling-season menus and book it now.
Relief ahead
Relief ahead. Eye of round usually eases about 24% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. PSMO usually eases about 23% by mid-February. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Knuckle usually eases about 23% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Bottom round flat usually eases about 17% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Chuck tender usually eases about 17% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Ribeye usually eases about 17% by early February. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Shoulder tender usually eases about 20% by mid-February. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Retail-ready chuck roll usually eases about 17% by late November. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Flank steak usually eases about 16% by late January. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Chuck flap usually eases about 16% by mid-February. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Cap-off top round usually eases about 15% by mid-December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Chuck roll usually eases about 15% by late November. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Top round (untrimmed) usually eases about 14% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Top round usually eases about 14% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Gooseneck round usually eases about 13% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Tenderloin butt usually eases about 10% by early April. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
Relief ahead. Top blade usually eases about 8% by early December. Order week to week and hold off on locking in.
In the news Oct 30 Feedlot placements record low BEEF Magazine
Boxed Beef Price, Choice
$/cwt · weekly · USDA · this year over the last two
2024202520263-yr avgProjection
This week
$369
4-wk change
▼ 3%
vs 3-yr avg
+10%
13-wk proj
$365
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, week of Oct 30, 2026 · Seymour Meat estimate: the Upper ⅔ premium.
Ribeye · Choice
Rib, Ribeye Roll, Lip-On (112A)
$16.05/lb +23% vs normal
Relief · ~17% by early Feb
Outside skirt · Choice & Select
Plate, Outside Skirt (121C)
$8.42/lb +22% vs normal
Lock in · ~15% by late Jan
Sirloin flap · Choice
Loin, Bottom Sirloin Butt, Flap (185A)
$7.28/lb +2% vs normal
Lock in · ~11% by late Jan
Strip · Choice
Loin, Strip Loin, Boneless, 0x1 (180)
$9.09/lb +11% vs normal
Book · ~36% by mid-Jun
PSMO · Choice
Loin, Tenderloin, Side Muscle On, Defatted, Heavy (189A)
$16.46/lb -5% vs normal
Relief · ~23% by mid-Feb
- Oct 30 New World Screwworm Found in Arizona as USDA Reopens Border Trade DTN/Progressive Farmer
- Oct 29 Texas A&M to conduct massive screwworm genomics project BEEF Magazine
Seymour Meat is an independent weekly read on beef, for the people who buy it for a menu. We take USDA market data and make it easy to understand: where each cut sits against its own history, where the season usually takes it, and what that means for your menu costs. Updated every Friday and Monday.